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If you've walked by a big-box store on a Friday lately, you've likely noticed an increasingly familiar sight: a line stretching out the door, filled with eager Pokémon card collectors hoping to snag fresh restocks. What started as nostalgia-driven collecting has rapidly ballooned into a frenzy reminiscent of the infamous sports card bubble of the 1990s. But how long can this Pokémon TCG craze last?
Every Friday restock day has turned into a battle zone, as collectors and scalpers alike race to grab whatever Pokémon product hits the shelves. Many scalpers aren't even Pokémon fans—they're opportunists looking to make a quick buck, often running up hefty credit card bills to hoard sealed boxes, tins, and packs, betting that their value will rise.
But this rampant speculation has a cost. Casual collectors, particularly younger fans, find themselves priced out or simply unable to compete. Store shelves are often barren mere moments after restocking, as scalpers sweep away products that soon reappear online at heavily inflated prices.
In response to insatiable demand, The Pokémon Company has significantly increased its print runs. Popular sets that collectors initially chased due to perceived scarcity are now readily available. Sets like "Evolving Skies," "Crown Zenith," and special editions like the "Van Gogh Pikachu" promotional cards have flooded the market.
Speaking of the "Van Gogh Pikachu," this single card epitomizes the issue perfectly. At present, nearly 40,000 PSA 10 copies of this promotional card have been graded. That staggering number is a clear indicator that the market is saturated, and perceived rarity is often misleading.
This Pokémon TCG craze eerily mirrors the sports card bubble of the late '80s and early '90s. During that era, card manufacturers massively overproduced sets due to explosive demand. Eventually, collectors realized that their "rare" cards weren't rare at all—many were printed into the millions. The result? Prices collapsed dramatically, leaving collectors with worthless stacks of cardboard.
Today's Pokémon market seems poised on the edge of a similar fate. Speculative buying, inflated prices driven by hype rather than actual scarcity, and continuously growing PSA populations are all signs pointing toward an eventual downturn.
It's challenging to predict exactly when the Pokémon bubble might pop. However, signs suggest we are reaching peak saturation. Scalpers, already deeply in debt from excessive credit-card purchases, could soon find themselves desperate to liquidate inventory as values stabilize or decline. Collectors, becoming aware of inflated populations and overprinted sets, might withdraw from the market, further depressing prices.
Long-term collectors advise caution and patience. If history repeats itself—and it often does—Pokémon TCG's rapid expansion might soon give way to an equally rapid contraction, leaving behind lessons of moderation and the timeless truth that true rarity, not manufactured hype, drives lasting value.
